Yangi hisobotda, BofA global tadqiqot tahlilchilari, loyiha qurilishining joriy to'lqini yakunlanganligi sababli, mis bozori 2025 yildan boshlab qizil rangga qaytishini kutishmoqda.
Bankning ta'kidlashicha, 2022 yilda prognoz qilingan taqchillik va 2023 yilda global mis ishlab chiqarishning 7,7 foizga o'sishiga qaramay, so'nggi yillarda yangi konlarning yomon ishlashini hisobga olgan holda risklar pastga tushadi.
"While the visibility of the pipeline of recent projects has been good, the increase in activity has been accompanied by volatility," analysts at the bank said. "In fact, many projects currently under development have been nearly 30 years in the making, and supply growth is likely to fade from 2025 due to relatively limited exploration activity in recent years."
Bank of America ishlab chiqarish o'sishini cheklovchi bir qator muammolarni ko'radi. Yaqinda bo'lib o'tgan LME haftaligida Chili konchilik vazirining sobiq o'rinbosari Edgar Blanko Randning nutqi ushbu shartlarni aks ettirdi.
Rasmiy Chilida{0}}bir qator loyihalarni taqdim etdi, ular 2029 yilga kelib 74 milliard xarajat evaziga amalga oshirilishi va umumiy ishlab chiqarish hajmi 7 million tonnaga yetishi kerak. Edgar Blanko misga e'tibor qaratadi va 2000 yildan beri ishlab chiqarish bir tekisda, taxminan 5,7 mln.
"This implies capex intensity of about 50,000 per tonne, well above the 10,000 to 20,000 per tonne range of recent years. As an aggravating factor, investment needs to be large enough to offset production losses of about 1.5 million tonnes."
According to Bank of America, the 10 most significant supply increases will account for 58 percent of the increase in output by 2022. This supports BofA's view that the expansion is very concentrated and has two implications. First, operational problems at just one or two mines could significantly affect the balance of the market, meaning that the trajectory of these 10 mines is critical.
Ikkinchidan, Bank of America ma'lumotlariga ko'ra, deyarli barcha yangi biznes tajribaga ega bo'lgan operatorlar tomonidan boshqariladi, bu esa uzilishlar va -to'liq yetkazib berish xavfini kamaytiradi.
