2021 yilda COVID-19 epidemiyasi butun dunyo bo'ylab tarqalishda davom etdi, Qo'shma Shtatlar pul kreditini yumshatish siyosatini amalga oshirishda davom etdi. Bayden lavozimga kelganidan so'ng, u 1,9 trillion iqtisodiy yordam va 1,2 trillion infratuzilma qurilishi to'g'risidagi qonun loyihasini o'z ichiga olgan xarajatlar rejalarini taklif qildi. Pulning haddan tashqari emissiyasi muqarrar edi, bu esa xom ashyo narxlarini, shu jumladan, asosiy metallarning narxini oshirdi. Ular orasida qalay narxi birinchi o'rinda ko'tarildi.
2021 yilda xalqaro bozorda qalay narxi bir tomonlama o'sish tendentsiyasini ko'rsatdi va LME qalay spotining yillik rasmiy kotirovkasi 86 foizga oshdi. Eng past narx 20 710/tonna, eng yuqori narx esa 39 875/tonnani tashkil qildi. Oʻrtacha narx 31 141 tonnani tashkil etdi, bir yilga-yilga-82 foizga oʻsdi. LME zaxiralari 1,860 tonnadan 2,020 tonnagacha 8,6 foizga oshdi.
2021 yilda LME qalay narxining tendentsiyasini taxminan ikki bosqichga bo'lish mumkin, yil boshidan sentyabr oyining oxirigacha narx 20 970 USD/tonnadan 35800 USD/tonnaga ko'tarildi. oktabr oyi boshida 33400 USD/tonna past darajaga biroz korreksiya qilindi, shundan soʻng yana oʻsishning ikkinchi toʻlqini noyabr oxirida 39875 USD/tonnaga yetdi. O'shandan beri zarba yil oxirigacha davom etadi.
LME qalay narxi tendentsiyasiga o'xshab, 2021 yilda Shanxay bozorida qalayning spot narxi ham o'sib borayotgan bozor to'lqinidan tashqarida. Shanxay bozorining qalay spot indeksi yil davomida 95 foizga o'sdi. Eng pasti 152 838 yuan/tonna, eng yuqorisi 300063 yuan/tonna, o'rtacha 227 049 yuan/tonna, o'tgan yilga nisbatan 87 foizga o'sish-dir. O'tgan davrdagi zahiralar 5 574 tonnadan 1 260 tonnagacha keskin pasayib, 77 foizga pasaydi.
Customs statistics show that from January to November 2021, China's tin concentrate import volume totaled 164,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 25 percent ; Refined tin imports of 4,588 tons, down 71.8 percent year on year; Refined tin exports totaled 14,000 tons, up 239 percent year on year; Net exports of refined tin totaled more than 9,000 tons. China's refined tin production totaled 214,200 tons in 2021, up 11.07 percent year on year, according to the China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association.
Butunjahon metallar statistikasi byurosi (WBMS) tomonidan e'lon qilingan ma'lumotlarga ko'ra, 2021 yilda dunyo bo'ylab qayta ishlangan qalay ishlab chiqarish 380,1 ming tonnani, talab esa 378,8 ming tonnani tashkil etdi, bu biroz ortiqcha.
The World Bank's latest Global Economic Outlook, released in January, noted that, following a strong rebound in 2021, global economic growth is entering a period of marked slowdown due to new threats posed by novel Coronavirus variants, combined with rising inflation, debt and income inequality. Global growth is expected to slow markedly from 5.5 per cent in 2021 to 4.1 per cent in 2022, with some negative impact on base metals markets, as the release of pent-up demand in the previous phase is completed and fiscal and monetary support policies are withdrawn. As for the tin market, from the supply side, Indonesian President Joko Widodo, as the world's largest refined tin exporter, has talked about tin export twice recently. In November, he told an annual meeting of the central bank that Indonesia could halt tin exports by 2024 to attract investment in the resource processing industry. In January, he said at the 2022 G20 Business Meeting in Indonesia that he would ensure that Indonesia could meet the world's demand for tin, nickel and bauxite, not in the form of raw materials, but in the form of finished or semi-finished products with high added value. I think that the outside world may question the strength of Indonesia's policy implementation because of past experience, but at present, this is very likely to happen. On the one hand, Indonesia's aggressive development of nickel downstream production since 2015 has seen results, not only creating a lot of jobs, but also having a positive impact on its exports and trade balance. The Indonesian government is expected to apply the success of nickel to other mining products. On the other hand, when Joko's second term as president expires in 2024, he is expected to follow the development model of the nickel industry and roll out industrial policies on all mining products, including tin, in which Indonesia is dominant, before the end of his term, thus becoming a highlight of his achievements. Based on the above two factors, if conditions are mature, the Indonesian government can fully advance the implementation date of the suspension of tin export, so there will be great uncertainty in the global tin supply in the next 2-3 years. From the consumption side, according to the international Tin Industry Association estimates, in 2022, the photovoltaic industry is expected to reach 16,000 to 19,000 tons of tin, and last year, the photovoltaic industry with about 14,000 tons of tin, considerable growth. Thus, this year tin market overall consumption will continue to maintain growth.
Narxlar nuqtai nazaridan, Lunxi bu yil 40, 000 48, 000 USD/tonna oralig'ida ishlashi kutilmoqda va Huxi 300,000 350,000 RMB/tonna mintaqasida sozlanadi va zarba beradi.
