On Feb. 22, BMO reported that precious metals such as palladium and gold will benefit from the escalating situation in Ukraine and increasing sanctions against Russia, while commodities such as aluminum and nickel are also worth watching. Analysts at Blue Line Futures said tensions escalated in the West in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin's announcement that he recognized two self-proclaimed republics in eastern Ukraine and ordered troops to be sent there as "peacekeepers."
In response, U.S. President Joe Biden said he would release the first sanctions against Russia, targeting two Russian banks and sovereign debt. Biden also called Russia's actions "the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine." Earlier in the day, Germany announced it was halting the certification process for nord Stream 2 gas pipeline imports from Russia. In addition, the EU imposed sanctions on most members of the Russian Duma and banned purchases of Russian government bonds.
Bu Rossiyaga qarshi sanksiyalarning boshlanishi bo'lishi mumkin, shuning uchun BMO hisoboti tovar savdosi oqimiga mumkin bo'lgan ta'sirni ko'rib chiqishga qaror qildi.
"Ultimately, we expect Russian commodity exports to shift from Europe and North America to Asia," bMO commodities analyst Colin Hamilton said. A change in existing trade routes would lead to temporary disruption of market fundamentals, with precious metals being the commodities most affected by the shortage."
Palladium is the best performer of all precious metals, with Russia accounting for 39 per cent of the world's refined metal supply. Palladium prices have surged 24 per cent so far this year. Hamilton warned that further supply disruptions from Russia could lead to a sharp rise in palladium prices.
"Supply uncertainty, combined with the resumption of auto production, led to higher palladium prices... Russia is expected to account for 9 per cent of gold, 6 per cent of silver, 11 per cent of platinum and 8 per cent of rhodium supply respectively."
Qimmatbaho metallarning jozibadorligi-ta'minot bilan bog'liq muammolardan tashqari, global fond bozoridagi inqirozdan xavfsizlikni qidirayotgan ko'proq investorlarni jalb qilmoqda.
Hamilton added: "Safe-haven investment demand in the market is also stimulating gold prices, which have recovered to around 1,900 an ounce."
Rossiya nafaqat neft, balki Sharqiy Yevropadagi geosiyosiy keskinlikdan foyda olishi kerak bo‘lgan bir qancha strategik tovarlarning ham asosiy yetkazib beruvchisidir, dedi Blue Line Futures kompaniyasining bozor bosh strategisi Fil Streybl. Neft va gaz ta'minoti keskin bo'lsa, xom neft narxi bir barrel uchun 100 yoki hatto 120 dan oshishi mumkin, dedi Streible.
Other strategic metals such as palladium, copper and cobalt will also benefit further, he said. "Russia is the second largest platinum producer in the world, the first palladium producer, the third largest wheat producer," he said. Wheat prices have begun to rise, up 4.85 percent so far this year. Russia produces 3.5 percent of the world's copper. As demand for electric cars increases, copper is one of the main ingredients... Russia produces 4 percent of the world's cobalt, which is used in batteries for electric cars. So Russia is a very strategic country in terms of commodity production, commodity exports and the direction of the global economy."
Bmo tovarlari bo'yicha tahlilchi Kolin Hamilton alyuminiy va nikel kabi tovarlarni, ayniqsa Yevropa va Shimoliy Amerikada ham ko'rishga arziydi, deb qo'shimcha qildi. Global miqyosda Rossiya ta'minoti unchalik muhim emas, lekin ular rivojlangan bozorlarda yaxshi o'rnatilgan. Ehtimol, bundan ham muhimi, bu tovarlarning zaxiralari allaqachon kam. Bundan tashqari, u Evropa va Shimoliy Amerikadagi LME alyuminiy mukofotlari yaqin kelajakda o'sishini kutmoqda.
